Quote:
Originally Posted by twobjshelbys
I think the whole thing is academic. The entire process was created started at a time when the potential existed for a fairly good sized market, but that market was in fact fixed and small and declining, and not capable of supporting a large number of manufactures, even for some vehicles, only one.
Since then the consumer pool has shrunk. Let's face it, 20 year olds aren't interested in Cobras, and most of the people here while they love their Cobras, aren't going to be willing to spend the money on a fully compliant turnkey car. A roller + power train from even the cheapest kit will now approach 100K. A fully completed car with warrantied power train and the builder/dealer overhead will realistically approach 200k.
The TAM for this kind of car in fiberglass is practically nil. Why? Because you can get a Kirkham roller and finish it for the same price.
The TAM is fixed and very small for a price point in the 200K range. Get all of the current viable Cobra kit makers in the market and none of them will make enough to make it a profitable venture. If they do attrition will take care of supply vs demand quickly.
I don't think there will be more than a handful of participants and their volumes will no where approach the limits.
Kit Cobras will continue to be popular. But the TAM (Total Available Market) for them decreases daily as the TAM ages.
Like I said, a status report in a year will tell what really is happening.
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The TAM may not 325 units, it may not be 200, it may only be 50 (BTW, the original proposal was for 500 units per manufacturer, but it was opposed. Guess by who? GM! Like the extra 175 was gonna cut into their share!)
The market for these "turn-key" cars is the disposable income buyer who:
1) Sees a car, wants it and lays the money down, instant gratification
2) Wants a car, but doesn't want to deal with the build-out, registration process, etc.
3) Needs to finance with the car as collateral, something with very limited sources now as most banks assign NO value to a car who's VIN doesn't show in the system
4) Wants a "real" car (I know, this is a stretch) with a warranty and some sort of support
There IS a market. Is it huge? No. Does it exist? Yes.