It is actually worse than reported, really.
There are 4 types of unemployment; frictional, cyclical, structural, and seasonal.
Frictional is where you leave to find something else, cyclical is the bad one and has to do with ups/downs in markets, structural is skills related (job eliminating due to 'creative destruction') and seasonal is farm work. Given that the
accepted base unemployment rate is 6.5%, if the BLS reports 9.5$ UE, we are
really at 16%! And the economists also recognize that the way we report numbers
deflates them. For example, if your benefits expire...you don't count! If you get discouraged and stop looking...you don't count! And if you earn as little as $1 in any given week...you're employed! These factors actually
lower the true UE rate. The last report I saw said UE hit 9.4% in the 1st quarter of '09. Add in the expected unemployment you're at 15.9%. Add in the ones whose benefits expired, and those who have given up, or those who took jobs in 7-11 to make
something until a real job comes back, and I would lay $ that the
true UE rate is closer to 25%. IIRC, the Great Depression's
real unemployment rate was estimated to be 35%, so we are closing in....
And yes, the politicos (all of them) try to put lipstick on the pig and get the rest of us to spend their way out. Sooner or later, all those bills will come due and we will have to send the band home and pay to clean up the dance hall. I wonder if that time has finally come?
