Self-driving cars...

[Dangerous Doug]

I read an article recently about Google's "self-driving cars".

What is this world coming to?

The gist of the article is that the self-driving cars (SDC) are very cautious and slow, tend to over-react to inputs like joggers on the other side of the street, but though boring, seem "safe" to ride in. Like a sterile capsule.

I thoroughly enjoy the experience of driving. Don't let my ClubCobra handle mislead you ("Dangerous Doug"), as I've matured my driving style has smoothed out and I take less risks, but still enjoy the man-and-machine experience. I couldn't imagine life without the exhilaration of the wind in my hair as I work my way through the gears, feeling the pull of acceleration. My Cobra is my place of refuge, and I find sheer joy in winding through a curvy country road, feeling very much alive.

Perhaps the SDC's would work for the "can't get the smartphone out of my face" crowd who'd like to sit in a sterile capsule and experience life online while being escorted to their cubicle---kind of like their Mom driving them to school two blocks away.

Are the current generation of twenty-somethings truly this disconnected from life as to not appreciate the sensation and freedom of driving?

DD

[Tommy]

Doug,
The future challenge for us manual drivers goes well beyond what younger generations want in their cars. Here's why. One of the great potential advantages of self driving cars is the ability to have more cars going faster and safer on our existing road system. But that depends on ALL the cars being computer controlled and networked together. For example, if there are 250 such cars moving down the freeway and a patch of open highway appears ahead of them, all 250 can accelerate simultaneously to the same higher speed without generating the accordion motion common in manually driven cars. They can also shuffle the cars that need to take the next three exits to the right places to do that without impacting the rest of the pack. But it only works if all the cars are networked AND self driving.

I can imagine a time when only networked self driving cars are allowed on stretches of high demand roadway. And I can imagine that trend will grow until manually driven cars are considered as welcome as horse drawn carriages are on today's roads. ... When most car owners have never driven manually and old cars are no longer welcome on the roads, our hobby will be effectively over.

[*13*]

The generations coming up behind us seem to have a strong interest in a car free society. Some of that generation will never get the chance to sit in a classic performance car, or the experience pulling through the gears of a spirited sport racing machine. The roar of carburetors, the whine of a gearbox, gasoline in your nose or wind in your face are things they'll never understand. It's our hobby to preserve.

[Dangerous Doug]

Tommy: Sound Utopic, with 250 SDC's zipping down a freeway in a tight-packed formation, rearranging based upon exit needs. Then a deer emerges from the side of the road (or an Elk, or a Bison...) and catastrophe strikes as the SDC's reaction time isn't sufficient and a major pileup occurs, leaving passengers injured, killed. Engineers recode. Lawyers begin to salivate.

SDC's may seem like a panacea for overcrowded highways, but there will always be problems.

Nevertheless, you're right. When I think of the logical end to the SDC development, I see myself as the lone, unwanted gasoline-powered vehicle driven by a human on the road.

On the other hand, SDC's won't be cheap, so does driving one become the sole right of the privileged class? What will an SDC do when non-SDC driver's act hostile?

*13*: Funny that the generation that was driven everywhere by their Mom in a giant SUV is now interested in a car-free society. I had to ride my bike or my skateboard to get around---another fun, wind-in-your-hair man and machine experience.

I guess Rush with their "Red Barchetta" science fiction song was not too far off the mark.

DD

[REAL 1]

Hopefully self driving technology is many years off. How will it be implemented? How will it deal with non SDC's?, emergency situations? etc....

A lot of issues still yet to deal with.

Another way of libs and geeks seeking to sanitize the world from humanity.

I'm sure the insurance company will still come up with a way to keep charging premiums

[Tommy]

Predicting the future is not so hard if you don't have to give a specific date on which it happens. I can't tell you what day the temperature will first drop below freezing in Minnesota, but I know it WILL happen this winter. .... Likewise, I don't know how the transition to self driving networked cars will proceed, but I'm convinced that, baring a meteor strike, pandemic, or other great disaster, it will happen.

[Buzz]

There'll be a suitable place for automated motorways in the future but it won't be everywhere. As long as there is rural area and open space between urban/high traffic areas, there will be plenty of room for non-networked, self driven cars. Folks will still have to be able to "get off the grid" and drive to their individual destinations.

The tendency to react with paranoia and hostility whenever a new technology is introduced is based upon the fear that it will totally replace or "take away" what you currently have. Think of the people who enjoyed the freedom of getting around on horseback back in the day when the railroad or them new fangled horseless motor carriages were being introduced - "They're gonna take our horses away and pack us all into these machines and we'll only be able to travel on roads and railroad tracks!! We'll have no freedom any more!!"

PS - with even current technology its not a big stretch to imagine that automated, networked cars should be able to detect and react far quicker, safer and more precisely than a bunch of unpredictable old fashioned cowboys in their primitive vee-hickles to things like a deer entering the roadway.

PPS - Even NASCAR can benefit from the new tech. Imagine a long column of cars endlessly circling in perfect formation with only inches between them. Hey - thats just like today! Except that the race controllers will be able to decide when its a good time to throw in a wreck and let the right car move to the pole. All for the good of the sport, of course.

[Paul F]

I can't wait for self driving cars. If they work out the bugs, they will open up so many possibilities. Crashes will go down, people with disabilities will be able to travel freely. Send your kid off to school and have the car come back by itself. No more deaths and disabilities from drunk drivers. Drive 24 hours to your destination. Roaming taxis that know how to get anywhere. Send your car out to get a bag of groceries or that beer you ran out of. It will be a radical change. As big as the internet. It will have impacts and applications we can't imagine.

But there will be an equal number of negatives. It will put autobody shops out of work. Will insurance rates go down? Will insurance rates for those that drive manually go up? Will that put more insurance employees out of work? The junk dealers and repair parts businesses will suffer. Some truck drivers will be out of work. Will there be any pride in ownership or will they become utility boxes like refrigerators - only to transport bodys.

The courts will have some interesting cases.

It will be fascinating.

[DanEC]

I read an article about self-driving cars a couple months ago that from memory discussed most of the accidents or events to date with them resulted from problems in dealing with erratic drivers in other cars. They seem to get rear-ended a lot.

Google self-driving car involved in first injury accident | Fox News

I kind of have my doubts about this technology. There's no doubt it works and works fairly well but somehow I'm re-minded of the bogus Audi unintended acceleration fiasco from the mid-80s (right after we bought my wife a new Audi 5000S - year right, a 110 HP motor can overpower 4 wheel disc brakes). Audi barely survived that idiotic affair here in the US. There will be a series of accidents and injuries - probably caused by other drivers - and the personal injury lawyers will show up and the lawsuits will start claiming the cars and technology are at fault. After awhile insurance costs and public perception of the technology will take a big hit after a few accident victims show up on network news and websites (if it's on TV or the internet - it must be true) - and before long they won't be able to sell one for any amount of money and manufacturers will drop them as fast as they can. At least that's my forecast.

[Tim7139]

Originally Posted by Paul F

I can't wait for self driving cars. If they work out the bugs, they will open up so many possibilities. Crashes will go down, people with disabilities will be able to travel freely. Send your kid off to school and have the car come back by itself. No more deaths and disabilities from drunk drivers. Drive 24 hours to your destination. Roaming taxis that know how to get anywhere. Send your car out to get a bag of groceries or that beer you ran out of. It will be a radical change. As big as the internet. It will have impacts and applications we can't imagine.

But there will be an equal number of negatives. It will put autobody shops out of work. Will insurance rates go down? Will insurance rates for those that drive manually go up? Will that put more insurance employees out of work? The junk dealers and repair parts businesses will suffer. Some truck drivers will be out of work. Will there be any pride in ownership or will they become utility boxes like refrigerators - only to transport bodys.

The courts will have some interesting cases.

It will be fascinating.

Found it fascinating already, especially when they showed how a sharp software guy with a cellphone could hack them on 60 minutes. Made it turn any drection and screech to a stop at will. Should be real fascinating when junior gets run into a wall on his way to school because of some bored hacker in Bosnia.

[Buzz]

It's worth bearing in mind we're talking about test mule prototypes in a very early stage of development. I'm sure software security is on the to-do list, but nothing is completely foolproof. I saw a video recently showing a guy with a cellphone remotely activating the brakes on a C7 Corvette through a hack into the dynamic stability control system.

[NewYorkGuy]

nobody misses the typewriter or fax machine.

in 3 years, you'll be able to buy an electric car from the Apple Store.
self-driving cars will be mainstream when we are dead...

[fordracing65]

I have been wanting my own driver for years, let me get drunk on the way to work, sign me up...

[Dimis]

Originally Posted by NewYorkGuy

nobody misses the typewriter or fax machine.

Sorry bro, that ain't the correct analogy.
For me, its more akin to losing the pen.

I can see advantages of motorways/freeways in town.
Particularly as insurance companies have a vested interest to reduce their expense claims on nose to tail incidents so no doubt they will loby away.

On principle, I'm against most all things that enables the dumbing down humanity.
Eg: Blind spot indicators, self park assist, abs, traction control... Blah, blah, blah... the list goes on. It's all done under the guise of "safety" but has exactly the opposite effect.

I hate knowing that I have to share the road with someone who will become conditioned to not even bother turning their head to check their blind spot, and lack the basic skills to park their car, or brake safely in an emergency, or even accelerate without spinning their wheels.

[Joe's Garage]

Originally Posted by Buzz

... I saw a video recently showing a guy with a cellphone remotely activating the brakes on a C7 Corvette through a hack into the dynamic stability control system.

Nothing a properly built faraday cage can't fix. If you can't talk to it, you can't screw with it.

[Tommy]

DanEC,
It will be interesting when four self-driving cars arrive at a 4-way Stop sign intersection at the same time. If they are networked, there will be an algorithm that tells them the correct order. It might be based on traffic patterns downstream from that intersection.

Will they know what to do when they arrive at a controlled light intersection when the controls are out and Police are directing traffic. When all the cars are networked, you won’t need a policeman to direct traffic. In fact, you may not need traffic lights at all.

Will they pull over when a funeral possession is approaching? If the cars are networked and the funeral procession cars are identified, yes it could be done.

Will they know not to drive into a flooded underpass (submarine technology?)? Maybe not the first car. But unlike with human drivers, none that follow will make the same mistake.

Will they try to avoid running over turtles in the road in the spring? It would depend on the resolution of the forward looking radar, the size of the turtle, and the risk to other traffic while dodging the turtle. BTW, the location of the turtle would be shared with following cars.

Will they dodge, tire shredding potholes in Detroit? The radar will see the potholes. Whether they are dodged will depend on traffic conditions.

When it's snowing will they know to speed up before the hill in order to have enough speed to carry itself over the crest before spinning to a stop. Or as soon as it detects moisture and temps of 32 and below will it just pull into the nearest parking lot and shut down to hibernate? I see no reason the algorithm could not account for the highway coefficient of friction. And unlike with human drivers, it would not attempt a maneuver it already knows is impossible to complete.

Will a squirrel crossing the road in front of them send their computer into a psychotic conniption fit? I would expect the erratic movement of the obstruction to identify it as a squirrel and the computer would do as I do: Ignore it and drive on.

Will they pause for panhandlers at intersections approaching the door or drive off? As the occupants will likely be looking at their devices rather than outside, the panhandling trade will die from lack of income.

Can they be programmed to park out in the far areas of the parking lot at Walmart to avoid all the housewife and kids banging up your doors and running shopping carts into your pride and joy? I’m sure it could if that’s what you told it to do.

Inquiring minds would like to know. Imaginative minds like to answer.

Just had a thought - I should have Googled these questions. No need. I got it.

[DanEC]

Originally Posted by Tommy

DanEC,
It will be interesting when four self-driving cars arrive at a 4-way Stop sign intersection at the same time. If they are networked, there will be an algorithm that tells them the correct order. It might be based on traffic patterns downstream from that intersection.

Will they know what to do when they arrive at a controlled light intersection when the controls are out and Police are directing traffic. When all the cars are networked, you won’t need a policeman to direct traffic. In fact, you may not need traffic lights at all.

Will they pull over when a funeral possession is approaching? If the cars are networked and the funeral procession cars are identified, yes it could be done.

Will they know not to drive into a flooded underpass (submarine technology?)? Maybe not the first car. But unlike with human drivers, none that follow will make the same mistake.

Will they try to avoid running over turtles in the road in the spring? It would depend on the resolution of the forward looking radar, the size of the turtle, and the risk to other traffic while dodging the turtle. BTW, the location of the turtle would be shared with following cars.

Will they dodge, tire shredding potholes in Detroit? The radar will see the potholes. Whether they are dodged will depend on traffic conditions.

When it's snowing will they know to speed up before the hill in order to have enough speed to carry itself over the crest before spinning to a stop. Or as soon as it detects moisture and temps of 32 and below will it just pull into the nearest parking lot and shut down to hibernate? I see no reason the algorithm could not account for the highway coefficient of friction. And unlike with human drivers, it would not attempt a maneuver it already knows is impossible to complete.

Will a squirrel crossing the road in front of them send their computer into a psychotic conniption fit? I would expect the erratic movement of the obstruction to identify it as a squirrel and the computer would do as I do: Ignore it and drive on.

Will they pause for panhandlers at intersections approaching the door or drive off? As the occupants will likely be looking at their devices rather than outside, the panhandling trade will die from lack of income.

Can they be programmed to park out in the far areas of the parking lot at Walmart to avoid all the housewife and kids banging up your doors and running shopping carts into your pride and joy? I’m sure it could if that’s what you told it to do.

Inquiring minds would like to know. Imaginative minds like to answer.

Just had a thought - I should have Googled these questions. No need. I got it.

You have more faith in technology than I do.

[Tommy]

Originally Posted by DanEC

You have more faith in technology than I do.

Don't mistake my prediction of the future with a desire to see it done, nor a prediction that it will come about without serious growing pains. My point was that none of the problems you mentioned in jest were beyond solving with today's technology plus a lot of money and political will. ... In my experience, people want better transportation and lower taxes. One way for politicians to have both (and keep their jobs) is to require car makers to find ways to stuff more and more cars on existing roadways. Networked self driving cars seem the obvious solution.

P.S.
Somewhere around 1954, the Weekly Reader for my elementary school class included an article about self driving cars. It anticipated that the government would bury electrical cable in center of each lane of the Interstate system that would send a signal to a system on the car to keep it in its lane. That plus an early cruise control would allow the driver to relax more and be responsible only for braking and occasional passing. Of course the Interstate highways were not nearly as crowded back then.

[Dimis]

Originally Posted by Tommy

Don't mistake my prediction of the future with a desire to see it done, nor a prediction that it will come about without serious growing pains. My point was that none of the problems you mentioned in jest were beyond solving with today's technology plus a lot of money and political will. ... In my experience, people want better transportation and lower taxes. One way for politicians to have both (and keep their jobs) is to require car makers to find ways to stuff more and more cars on existing roadways. Networked self driving cars seem the obvious solution.

Very plausible thoughts.... But if so, I'd suggest they put more time into public transport first. It would be a much simpler starting point. Light rail is yet to be automoted and they have their own tracks to keep to.

[DanEC]

I'll have to fall back on my original post and that personal injury lawyers will probably kill the whole thing. The first one hit and resulting in an injury will result in a class action lawsuit claiming the manufacturer failed to include measures in the programs that should have avoided the accident. Insurance companies and manufacturers will get the heebie jeebies over all the bad publicity and possibility of billion dollar judgements and can the technology. But in the meantime I guess we will see.