What Is The Future of The Cobra Replica Industry?

[ERA174]

I feel compelled to comment, based on the recent posts about well respected companies either closing or on the verge of closing. I’m not looking to make this a political statement, although let’s consider how the economy/life in this country has changed since the COVID virus! I have my beliefs in what benefits and plagues this country and you have yours, this is about our hobby and how to keep it from being cancelled. If we want our Cobra hobby to continue we have to realize the current industrial/social/political agenda does not align with its furtherance. I don’t profess to have any expertise on manufacturing, distribution, or production. With that said, I believe the industry out sourcing to other countries, is killing our economy and the businesses in this country. We’re at the mercy of the industries/countries that we have outsourced to, they are now in control of the price of the goods they provide for us and when we get them! With the given supply chain issues, I feel this country needs to realize they/we need to bring essential manufacturing back to this country, or we’re doomed. When we outsource we lose all control over the item/industry, let’s hope it’s not something critical! We have been sold a bill of goods “it’s cheaper to outsource” well we’re paying the price now, has anyone looked at the inflation level! I don’t have the ability to change anything myself, we as a collective community need to understand how what we do effects our future! Do your due diligence, be informed, involved, or you may have regrets down the road when you can’t do anything other than admire the high $$$ Cobra in the garage, or worse. Not trying to be all dooms day, just don't think you can sit back and hope everything will work out without you getting involved! This country was founded by men and woman who sacrifised for their beliefs and the common good, let's not squander their sacrifise with our apathy.

[mrmustang]

There are some brilliant designers, mechanical engineers, even brain surgeons, and then some. Can they all run a successful business, handle the sales end of the business, handle the juggling and scheduling of the business, keep the books, and known when to pay the bills, sadly, no....Covid did not help the situation, but it is certainly not going to be the downfall of the kit car industry, as kit car makers come, and go, and have since the very beginning. Not all due to anything but the owners desire to retire for personal reasons, which if you think about it, you could substitute the words "kit car industry" for any other privately owned manufacturing business or sales oriented business and this post would still apply.

And thus ends the lesson for this evening, as owning and running a successful business is not for everyone.

Bill S.

[twobjshelbys]

The issue here is one of a declining TAM (Total Available Market). The population of Cobra Buyers is decreasing over time. Young people aren't drawn to the styling and care and feeding of a totally manually operated car that is only a toy. The population of people that first heard of the Cobra in the 60s is aging out. I loved my cobra when I was 57. Now at almost 70 it would be a chore to "put it on".

Thus the manufacturers can't make enough volume to support their costs. The result is either consolidation (mergers, true in normal commodity markets) or attrition.

Sadly, we will see more.

I suspect that Superformance will stay around. They still build lots of cars and have other lines to help spread manufacturing around.

Backdraft and Factory Five probably survive for a while.

Others with low volumes and long lead times will suffer.

Sadly I think that Shelby will probably bow out sooner or later. Kirkham might last a little longer. Both have a pricing and volume structure that I doubt is sustainable.

Others like ERA will struggle. Long lead times even for high quality product are a hold off for buyers. Especially for the "getting older" crowd.

[RodKnock]

As EV's become even more and more popular and eventually the majority vehicle on the road, gas stations will become extinct. And the demand for fossil fuel will diminsh. And our Cobras will become extinct, unless we convert them to electric power, of course.

[Harpoon PV2]

I was talking to a friend of mine a couple of years ago, he is a baby boomer born the same year as me. He said I should sell all my motorcycles, because young people wont want them! I said, there were 4.2 million babies born the year we were, and I said, not 1%, of 1%, of 1%, add a bunch more, are interested in old vehicles, yet all old vehicles that are interesting are setting new records in price! Gen X are big on Harley WLs, are we talking millions, no, but they are driving the prices up. It's all about disposable income. Plus, Ford Vs Ferrari, will keep small block Cobra's in the back of younger peoples brains, until they have some loose change, going jingle jangle in their pockets! There may be a lull, look at Model As after my Dads generation mostly passed away, now they are climbing again. Look at the young people building Model T Cut Downs and Speedsters, plus Rat Rods. Since the early 80s, there have always been to many Cobra companies. Well, off my soap box, which have gone up in price also. Cheers, Dennis

[Buzz]

I believe the rise of EV's *might* well make the Cobra stand out as an iconic nod to gas guzzling, fossil fueled excess and actually spark renewed interest among younger potential enthusiasts. The generations that revere the Cobra for it's once world-beating performance are thinning out and there are several commonly available cars - from Japanese Imprezas, Evos, and Skylines to the reimagined Yank muscle cars, GT500's, ZL-1's, Hellcats and Z06's - that make Cobra performance parameters look almost ordinary by today's standards.

So while the Cobra may no longer be the baddest kid on the block, its brash personality, big loud pipes and iconic looks will continue to stand out in shocking contrast to the silent, sterile modernism of electric cars. They may well outrun, outhandle and outbrake any Cobra but they'll never match the jarring impact Cobras have on all 5 human senses. Cobras may well become the new hot rod of choice for a generation of gearheads who see it as the ultimate expression of internal combustion performance.

[cycleguy55]

This reminds me of an expression about agriculture:

Q: How do you become a millionaire while farming?

A: Start with 2 million dollars.

[awfink55]

I bring the ERA Cobra to our local Car Shows. Besides the older gentlemen reminiscing of days gone by, they bring their grandkids to admire our cars. Every time I offer to have a wide eyed youngster sit in my Cobra, take some pictures, they have a grin from ear to ear and jump in without hesitation. It does leave an impression. So, there is HOPE for our hobby.........

[1795]

Originally Posted by awfink55

I bring the ERA Cobra to our local Car Shows. Besides the older gentlemen reminiscing of days gone by, they bring their grandkids to admire our cars. Every time I offer to have a wide eyed youngster sit in my Cobra, take some pictures, they have a grin from ear to ear and jump in without hesitation. It does leave an impression. So, there is HOPE for our hobby.........

That is the best way to keep things going. We like these cars because we saw, read about, or had some other experience with them when we were young. Without experience these cars will become a memory. When at the track I offer any interested children the opportunity to sit in the car and have their picture taken. There is one family that tracks me down each year at the Glen for the US Vintage Grand Prix because I offered to have their 1 year-old son sit in the car for a picture. Each year they come back for a new picture of him as he gets older. Maybe someday he will buy my car when I am too old to race....

Jim

[t walgamuth]

We'll see a lot more electric cars, including cobras. As for performance when I go to an autocross sometimes a Tesla will show up. They can launch like an f 16 off a carrier and are very very fast around the course. Of course you may want to add sound as the whirr of the motor and rushing sounds of the tires don't compare with the v8 bellow of a 427 cobra.

The reality is us boomers are starting to die off and we have been a large part of the market for a good while. So as demand softens It is a good bet it will impact all of us.

[Tommy]

In spite of its title, the OP spent most of his words lamenting "outsourcing" and the loss of USA based production and manufacturing. So I'll address this topic by asking all to remember the oil/gasoline price spike that occurred in 2012. That spurred fresh efforts by oil companies to find and develop new oil sources to take advantage of the high prices. They were successful. Oil supplies increased and prices dropped. That's the way things are supposed to work in a relatively free market economy. . . . Like it or not, we live in a world economy where a manufacturer in Pennsylvania must compete with one in Viet Nam. Customers vote with their dollars and most are far more concerned with saving a few bucks than the welfare of workers in another state or another country, or the potential impact the loss of control of local production will have in the future. The sad news is that the vast majority of people are far more concerned about what might happen today than what might happen a year from now. The good news is that in a relatively free market economy, if outsourcing does create economic problems someone will come forward to fill that need as they did when oil prices spiked.

Specialty car makers will continue to come and go as supply, demand and technology continue to change. I doubt anything I or anyone else has written here will change that even a little bit.

[sunman]

I’m writing Elon and if he will give me a good price on a EV West Tesla motor I’ll put “Powered By Tesla” on the Classic.
Crank up the tunes and hold on.
500 HP and 800 ft lbs like rite now.

[twobjshelbys]

Originally Posted by Tommy

In spite of its title, the OP spent most of his words lamenting "outsourcing" and the loss of USA based production and manufacturing. So I'll address this topic by asking all to remember the oil/gasoline price spike that occurred in 2012. That spurred fresh efforts by oil companies to find and develop new oil sources to take advantage of the high prices. They were successful. Oil supplies increased and prices dropped. That's the way things are supposed to work in a relatively free market economy. . . . Like it or not, we live in a world economy where a manufacturer in Pennsylvania must compete with one in Viet Nam. Customers vote with their dollars and most are far more concerned with saving a few bucks than the welfare of workers in another state or another country, or the potential impact the loss of control of local production will have in the future. The sad news is that the vast majority of people are far more concerned about what might happen today than what might happen a year from now. The good news is that in a relatively free market economy, if outsourcing does create economic problems someone will come forward to fill that need as they did when oil prices spiked.

Specialty car makers will continue to come and go as supply, demand and technology continue to change. I doubt anything I or anyone else has written here will change that even a little bit.

This planet will never run out of oil. The increase in price makes sources that weren't cost effective into cost effective - shale oil in Colorado, North Dakota and Canada being the last round. Methods such as fracking return depleted wells to producing. If we need it there are off-shore sources that can be activated.

But it won't matter. And the reason isn't that we discover new sources and methods but that it will become illegal to use it. The tree huggers will shut down the oil industry within 20 years. It will remain as a source of power for the fringe - mostly heavy equipment [I can't fathom the battery source for a D9 Cat]. But the volume produced will cause the price to be astronomical and most people won't use it for "sports" cars.

The same is already true of natural gas. There are cities that have already outlawed natural gas for use in heating and cooking. Use electricity. [Of course, they forget that most electricity is generated using natural gas now, but they cover their eyes.]

In 10 years the electric infrastructure will collapse because when everyone in a subdivision plugs in their electric car to charge the fuse will blow at the substation. But who ever thought of planning.

[fordracing65]

Anybody who drives an electric cobra should be electrocuted. I don’t care if they are fast. I think of the day when NHRA top fuel is electric. What could be more boring. The fun of it is the sound the smell the fire out of the exhaust. It’s alive.

[patrickt]

Originally Posted by fordracing65

The fun of it is the ... smell the fire out of the exhaust.

Gnats and bugs never even get near me when the Cobra is running.

[t walgamuth]

Originally Posted by twobjshelbys

This planet will never run out of oil. The increase in price makes sources that weren't cost effective into cost effective - shale oil in Colorado, North Dakota and Canada being the last round. Methods such as fracking return depleted wells to producing. If we need it there are off-shore sources that can be activated.

But it won't matter. And the reason isn't that we discover new sources and methods but that it will become illegal to use it. The tree huggers will shut down the oil industry within 20 years. It will remain as a source of power for the fringe - mostly heavy equipment [I can't fathom the battery source for a D9 Cat]. But the volume produced will cause the price to be astronomical and most people won't use it for "sports" cars.

The same is already true of natural gas. There are cities that have already outlawed natural gas for use in heating and cooking. Use electricity. [Of course, they forget that most electricity is generated using natural gas now, but they cover their eyes.]

In 10 years the electric infrastructure will collapse because when everyone in a subdivision plugs in their electric car to charge the fuse will blow at the substation. But who ever thought of planning.

Is the last paragraph meant to be taken literally or is it sort of a dark joke?

[twobjshelbys]

Originally Posted by t walgamuth

Is the last paragraph meant to be taken literally or is it sort of a dark joke?

Literally. The electric infrastructure is not sized to replace the "watts produced by petroleum" with "watts produced by generators". Your house probably has a 150-200amp service. The transformers in your neighborhood are sized to that size of service multiplied by the number of units they service. So is the feed to the transformers. Now multiply that by 2 to service charging 3 or 4 EVs every night (how many people have just one car?) and you see that the infrastructure simply cannot handle distribution of 3-4x the power over the existing grid.

Think of it going the other way. How many dorms were flooded when everyone flushed their toilets at the same time?

Oh and expect electricity rates to increase to cover the cost of accelerated infrastructure upgrades.

[sunman]

Superformance is already selling a Mark III-E.
When we frack here in Oklahoma we drill a bunch of equally spaced holes and run horizontal parallel lines off of them deep down.
The frack tank rigs and pumps are on semis and are huge.
After the frack we suck out the secret sauce and pump it down old wells.
Just to get rid of it.
I’m helping a friend build a solar powered shop “off grid” only because OGandE power company won’t pay for power we give them.
Electrocuted what a way to go. I got shocked every day in the TV business.
What? Can’t hear ya old timer, stereos to loud.

[Alfa02]

A Cobra without the V-8 roar (Venom) is reduced to nothing more than a BELT, or a pair of BOOTS!!!

[RodKnock]

Originally Posted by twobjshelbys

Literally. The electric infrastructure is not sized to replace the "watts produced by petroleum" with "watts produced by generators". Your house probably has a 150-200amp service. The transformers in your neighborhood are sized to that size of service multiplied by the number of units they service. So is the feed to the transformers. Now multiply that by 2 to service charging 3 or 4 EVs every night (how many people have just one car?) and you see that the infrastructure simply cannot handle distribution of 3-4x the power over the existing grid.

Think of it going the other way. How many dorms were flooded when everyone flushed their toilets at the same time?

Oh and expect electricity rates to increase to cover the cost of accelerated infrastructure upgrades.

I honestly don't know the real answer, but there are plenty of articles and plenty of people on the Internet that disagree and say that our current infrastructure can handle the increase of the number of EV's. They say that it's a myth that our current electric system can't handle many more EV's.

What I will say is that there are many, many, many homes in my neigborhood with 2-4 EV's charging everyday in our hot summer weather. And PG&E hasn't had any issue to my knowledge.

Again, I don't know who's BS'ing who.