Ford stock - anybody got an opinion??

kayakjack · #1 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:17 AM

Ford common stock is trading at around $2. Pretty low huh?

Are they going to be around in a few years? Go bankrupt? CEO Alan Mulally turn it around?

Good investment? Dumb investment?

What do you think??

Jack

Ron61 · #2 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:46 AM

Hard to say with that Billionaire dumping his stock. I think a lot of what happens is going to depend on what GM does. I am waiting until it gets down to around $1 a share and then may think about it. Right now they need money and are short of that as is GM.

Ron

392cobra · #3 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:57 AM

I'm waiting until the share price is on par to cheap wallpaper.

That way when they crater I am not really out anything.

speed220mph · #4 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 11:03 AM

Better wait until after the election. If the tax and spend guy--read socialist--gets in, the economy may go into a deep recession or even depression. There won't be many customers for new automobiles regardless of the manufacture.

Bob In Ct · #5 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 11:09 AM

Maybe PM, KO, JNJ, KFT instead (regardless of who wins). All will be around in 20 years and they will all send you dividends (at 15% tax rate) the whole time. Plus, they're all on sale right now.

Bob

jwd · #6 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speed220mph

Better wait until after the election. If the tax and spend guy--read socialist--gets in, the economy may go into a deep recession or even depression. There won't be many customers for new automobiles regardless of the manufacture.

That's going to happen regardless of who is elected. I beleive, the worst is yet to come.

Jim

RedBarchetta · #7 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:28 PM

Break-up value is how analysts are going to start looking at these large manufacturers. The robotic tooling, engine foundries and associated software, etc. is worth billions, even in used condition. Somebody out there would buy it in a distressed sale. So the key is figuring out what their infrastructure is worth, including any intellectual capital (patents, key personnel, etc.). So, yeah, $2/sh is starting to LOOK attractive but you have to do the math and make some assumptions to determine if the company is trading below LIQUIDATION value (which book value isn't).

I agree...we haven't felt the bottom yet.

BlackSnake · #8 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 12:46 PM

Bought 5,000 shares for right around 12,000 dollars less than 2 weeks ago, I will keep you posted??? Ryan

Steve Cassani · #9 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 01:17 PM

The Ford family owns a majority of the company. The remainder of the stock is dispersed among too many individuals for anyone to be able to influence the direction management decides to take. Kirkorian came as close as anyone might to being in a position to maker demands on the family. He chose to sell, at a loss. I doubt his block will be purchased by an individual, further diluting the influence anyone might have.

If you're interested in a company with assets in excess of the total value of the shares outstanding Ford is a reasonable choice. Shareholders are the last to be compensated in the event of a failure and most frequently are left with nothing. Ford is more of a concern than other companies because the family's fortune is well distributed over many assets, not just the company that carries their name. Shareholders though are not similarly buffered against what may become more a matter of resignation for the Ford family.

A merger of GM and Chrysler, with the current owners of Chrysler compensated in cash and preferred stock in the new company, promises to have sufficient sales worldwide to leave Ford a distant second among domestic manufacturers. The new GM will be able to hold off Toyota's ascendence for a least a few more years. Ford has no comparable strategy available to it.

Two or three years ago Ford and Renault took a close look at eachother. I don't recall who blinked... The precedent does not bode well for Ford and the company is worth less as a manufacturer today. The decline in value of Ford's inventory of buildings and machines has been less but this 'identity' has no future.

drj · #10 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 03:02 PM

Ford, what Ford? Anybody looked at Shelby stock lately? And I was pinning my retirement on it too!

John

Bartruff1 · #11 (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:24 PM

But I think a good one...for $20,000 you can buy 10,000 shares. I think Mucalley is a genius and the gov will not let Ford fail for a variety of reason's. Look, the worst it can do is go down $2 and in 5 years ??? It might be up to $25 and you can buy a gt40 !!! I'm buying ...

speed220mph · #12 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 11:00 AM

Just in case you haven't heard . . . date 10-22-08 from Peter DeLorenzo of AutoExtremist:

"Captain Kirk" Kerkorian has decided that the new "Detroit Miracle" is too slow in coming, apparently. Kerkorian's investment company - Tracinda - released the following statement yesterday: "In light of current economic and market conditions, (Tracinda) sees unique value in the gaming and hospitality and oil and gas industries and has, therefore, decided to reallocate its resources and to focus on those industries." Which means that Tracinda is selling off its investment in Ford stock beginning with 7.3 million shares sold Monday, with the rest of Kerkorian's stake - 133.5 million shares - possibly on the block (we're talking at a substantial loss too, like to the tune of around $700 million since April - ouch. We can see leaning toward the oil and gas industries over the auto sector, but the gaming and hospitality industries too? Maybe not so much. Kerkorian is the classic impetuous investor with a ton of money and he wheels and deals at a prodigious rate, but there's no question that his dumping of Ford shares sends a dire message about the state of the domestic automobile business. That giant steaming bowl of Not Good has just turned into a full-blown buffet...

Murphy · #13 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 12:00 PM

Don't buy that cheap $2.00 stuff. I have some of the good $12.00 Ford stock. Just waiting for it to come back.

kayakjack · #14 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 12:36 PM

DETROIT -(Dow Jones)- Chrysler LLC, looking to trim $1 billion in non-core asset expenses, is now reviewing bids for its Dodge Viper nameplate.
The company's didn't disclose how many bids they have received other than to say there were "a lot," a Chrysler spokesperson said Friday.
Chrysler, which may be sold off by its current owner Cerberus Capital Management LP, announced in August that it was reviewing the future of the niche hot-rod nameplate as a way to cut more costs for the company. The auto maker said Friday that it will eliminate 25% of its salaried and supplemental work force.
Chrysler President Tom LaSorda said in September that there had been interest from specialty companies to mainstream companies and wealthy individuals. About 110 employees produce eight Vipers daily. General Motors Corp. (GM) is also in the process of looking for a buyer for its Hummer brand.
-By Jeff Bennett, Dow Jones Newswires; 248-204-5542; jeff.bennett@dowjones.com

danc30 · #15 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 12:39 PM

Buy Beer. It's a better investment...

LIQUID ASSETS !!
If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you will
have .....$49.00 today.
If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you will have
....................$33.00 today.
If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you will
have $00.00 today.
But.....
if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then
turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you will have received
.................................................. ......$214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily &
recycle.
It is called the 401-Keg.

Also on a Beer note:

A recent study found that the average American walks about 900 miles a year.
Another study found that Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol a
year.
That means that, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon !!!

Makes you proud to be an American !!!

mpanten · #16 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 04:00 PM

I thought I was a genius buying at 4.80. It made it throught the first round of panic pretty well but It, like everything else in my portfolio is down 50%. It is a great opportunity buy right now provided you dont need the money for a few years.

kayakjack · #17 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpanten

I thought I was a genius buying at 4.80.

I bought today at $1.90. We'll see after some time passes if that was a smart move. I think it is. I think Ford will survive. If they go bankrupt, I lose with all the other stockholders. Alan Mulally is a great manager. If anyone can turn it around he can. Ford makes a high quality product. Their product mix is not perfect, but it will be much better in a couple of years. The trick is to make it that far.

They have a contract with UAW workers which includes givebacks on benefits and work rules. They have a health care trust to be managed by the union.

I think Ford will lose money next year. 2010 will tell the tale.

Sure I want them to succeed because I will make a few bucks. Just as important, I am a Ford fan. I drive their products and like them. I am proud that my Cobra is powered by strong running Ford.

Jack

TButtrick · #18 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danc30

But.....
if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then
turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you will have received
.................................................. ......$214.00.

Time for a new calculator?

JBo · #19 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 05:15 PM

wait, it will be penny stock soon!

mpanten · #20 (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 05:17 PM

It's halfway there, all it needs is delisted.