Has the economy turned for you?

[Scott S]

The timber industry has been devastated for the last 18 months with many good logging companies retiring or going BK. I have been able to survive so far by selling some equipment and bleeding capital.

This week I have negotiated a contract that will require me to hire 6-8 men and mobilize equipment that has been parked for well over a year.

Is it getting better?

Scott S

[joyridin']

I work for a manufacturer of carbide inserts. Thinks have jumped by a huge factor since about last November. Every month has been 25-30% better than the same time last year.

I'm just hoping it continues.

[Black Mamba]

Back in '80 / '81 when the economy hit the skids the same things had happened. I was managing a cabinet shop and we weren't able to get the lumber we needed due to mills closing. We ended up shuttering. All this was precipitated by the housing market taking a dump sending new housing starts spiraling. Today's news was that the housing starts were up 27% last month so maybe we have turned a corner.

Hang tight and hope that we have!

[Jamo]

Our work never dropped...actually increased.

But clients tended to go a bit slower on paying last year. Past couple of months have seen a return to more on-time payments.

[Tommy]

I believe I heard that the lumber market was significantly impacted by the recent earthquake in Chile. Apparently they were a significant global supplier and their disruption has made other markets more valuable. I wonder if that's a factor in the US lumber business.

[Scott S]

Originally Posted by Tommy

I believe I heard that the lumber market was significantly impacted by the recent earthquake in Chile. Apparently they were a significant global supplier and their disruption has made other markets more valuable. I wonder if that's a factor in the US lumber business.

Yep a bit, a couple of mills down in south Oregon picked up due to the earthquake in Chile. What is really saving us is some new markets in South Korea and China. Russia has screwed themselves by some really big export duties and Asia is looking east for products.

Scott S

[tcrist]

The precision sheet metal industry out here in Ca has picked up steadily since the first of the year. We went from 24-32 hour weeks to 60+ out in the manufacturing shop.
Un-fortunately, I am in the front end of the process and what it takes me an hour or two to get everything ready for them takes them a week or two to manufacture so I bounce back and forth between 32-40 hour weeks.
I guess it is whatever is best for the company. I am 5 or so years away from retirement (if I ever can anyway) so I guess any work is good work.

[mln385]

Nothing here on the East Coast yet, still slow.
They say that we are usually last to recover and the west first.
Lets hope it is a beginning!

[Rick Parker]

In Auto Sales Business. This economic climate has caused many people to put off vehicle replacement and rightly so, uncertainty for many. The depressed demand that is beginning to re-enter the market is encouraging. People want to replace their vehicle but only if they realistically feel secure in thier jobs and are able to accept the new debt. After all,who wouldn't like to have a "New Car"? Banks are there, rates are favorable, new product is in inventory. Many of the lenders that pulled their "Horns in" are now actively renentering the market and are wanting a piece of the increasingly large pie. Springtime is when we always see volume increases begin, right after Tax time. However here in the West, used vehicle prices for 1-4 year old vehicles are higher than normal at the auctions, caused by short supplies, but the market will adjust, it always has but it will be slower. We are cautiously optomistic with recent sales trends. Information is important to us.

[Dan40]

Originally Posted by Black Mamba

Back in '80 / '81 when the economy hit the skids the same things had happened. I was managing a cabinet shop and we weren't able to get the lumber we needed due to mills closing. We ended up shuttering. All this was precipitated by the housing market taking a dump sending new housing starts spiraling. Today's news was that the housing starts were up 27% last month so maybe we have turned a corner.

Hang tight and hope that we have!

There are stats and there are 'dam' stats. New housing SALES were up 27% over the same month a year ago when new housing sales were zero. Existing home sales were dead FLAT last month. My son's business is way up, $300K in the black compared to losing $1 million a year ago. Improving economy? NO! He is down to 15% of former staff and he is working his azz off 14, 16 hours a day.

[Wes Tausend]

...

Of 756 Conductors in my senority district, all are back to work, as of the last two weeks. Conductors are the least and youngest senority class of road operations employees since the elimination of the brakeman. But then vacations are starting.

Still, it represents the company's estimate of railroad manpower requirements through this summer. Most (95%) are marked up (employed in) to presently available jobs. It is said that continental tranportion is an indicator of the rate of the US economy.

Hope it holds true. In the past, this country has been amazingly resilient. Hope that holds true also.

Wes

...

[Scott S]

Originally Posted by Wes Tausend

...



Hope it holds true. In the past, this country has been amazingly resilient. Hope that holds true also.

Wes

...

Wes I think it was a bit over a year ago that you mentioned the slowdown would make me better. I have found efficiencies that I was missing and have learned to do with less employees. I am excited that every employee I laid off has come back every one quit their current employers to work for me again.

Scott S

[Wes Tausend]

Originally Posted by Scott S

Wes I think it was a bit over a year ago that you mentioned the slowdown would make me better. I have found efficiencies that I was missing and have learned to do with less employees. I am excited that every employee I laid off has come back every one quit their current employers to work for me again.

Scott S

I remember, Scott. It's just great you've not only kept your chin up, but likely outran a few competitors that fell by the wayside in the "grizzly" process.

That is somewhat amazing that you were able to get all your employees back. First of all, they must have all been worth keeping, remarkable in itself. Second of all, that is nearly unprecedented combined loyalty on their part. I say only somewhat amazing because it is kind of obvious you care about your guys and I am sure they know it. Sure they came back when they could. You are the kind of boss everybody wants, but not everybody gets. America is still a great place to live and work because of men like you. Thank you.

With new-found efficiencies, and all these good men, you might bring in the kind of future reserve to weather the next crisis even better. There are no false promises in the world of self-employment. My hats off to you Scott, and I wish you and yours the very best.

Wes

...

[Ron61]

Scott,

That is great that all of your employees like working for you enough to come back like that. It is hard to say if the economy around here is improving or not. A couple of places are hiring, but three more went out of business in the past month. They reported that housing starts had taken a big jump, but when I saw what they counted that just isn't so. One of the bigger businesses had gotten a permit to add a huge addition and they were counting that as part of new housing permits. There are some being issued but there are also foreclosures still going on. I see maybe one or two logging trucks a week so the mill hasn't picked up much.

Ron

[K.Amber]

Originally Posted by Scott S

Wes I think it was a bit over a year ago that you mentioned the slowdown would make me better. I have found efficiencies that I was missing and have learned to do with less employees. I am excited that every employee I laid off has come back every one quit their current employers to work for me again.

I like your never say die attitude Scott. Am sure your employees were greatly motivated by your determination in the face of crisis. Lesson learnt well!”

[SP01715]

Inflation has not hit us yet. I have also heard from many experts that a major problem with commercial real estate is on the horizon. I warned of the housing crash back in 02, and people called me crazy. IMHO we have not turned the corner yet.

[Ron61]

Inflation has not hit us yet. I have also heard from many experts that a major problem with commercial real estate is on the horizon. I warned of the housing crash back in 02, and people called me crazy. IMHO we have not turned the corner yet.

I tend to agree. I just saw that Gottschalks, which went bankrupt about a year ago and closed all of their stores here are now going to open three new ones. But prices are going up very fast and for every store hiring or opening, there are some laying off and the foreclosures are still happening at a faster rate than they like to admit. Housing sales weer up quite a bit last month but it was houses that had been foreclosed on and the banks are just trying to get what they can salvage out of them. This area doesn't have much industry at all and right now from all I can see it is pretty stagnate. No matter how they twist the math, it really hasn't improved much and has lost a little in several areas.

Ron

[Scott S]

Originally Posted by Wes Tausend

Sure they came back when they could. You are the kind of boss everybody wants, but not everybody gets.

Wes

...

Thanks Wes,

Three of my past employees that came back have been working for Mike Phil of "Axman" fame. http://www.history.com/shows/ax-men/...l-logging-crew

I get a real giggle about shooting a cannon through one of his logging crews.

Scott S

[HI Cobra]

I'm over here in Hawaii (not like the real world, granted) but construction has
been in the pits since last year. I have all my home equity line in the company at this point and using personal savings to keep things going - just hope I have enough to make it through. Been through this before. To add insult to injury someone broke into my warehouse/office and stole a van and $20k worth of power tools used for installing fire sprinkler systems. Got the
van back and discovered they had cut the fuel and vent hoses and punched
the gas tank. Just nasty thieves here here in the land of "aloha"!

Things may be starting to turn here but not really sure of that yet. We sub
under general contractors and they are playing the Maytag man too.

I do hope this turns around soon.

Glad it is getting better for you Scott and that the improvement continues.

[Ron61]

Originally Posted by Scott S

Thanks Wes,

Three of my past employees that came back have been working for Mike Phil of "Axman" fame. http://www.history.com/shows/ax-men/...l-logging-crew

I get a real giggle about shooting a cannon through one of his logging crews.

Scott S

Scott,

Now that is funny. I normally watch the Axeman shows, but the ones in Florida and elsewhere seem to be getting more Hollywood than actual fact. I hope that your business continues to go well.

Ron