Jobless rates rise in US cities for sixth month

[cobra de capell]

Jobless rates rise in US cities for sixth month

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/4834844.cms

"A full 144 metropolitan areas reported jobless rates of at least 10 percent in the month, up from 112 in May. A year ago, only six cities had rates that high."
_____

But, but...."The Recession is OVER" (Newseek) http://www.wtol.com/Global/story.asp?S=10802737

This article covers June 2010, but now it's almost the end of July - my guess is 10.2% overall unemployment will be reported in early August covering July 2010. That number excludes the underemployed and those that have had their salaries cut or days off scheduled - without pay. Also, it's my understanding that even with the federal extensions, many unemployed people will exhaust unemployment benefits by the end of July or August - I'm not sure what happens to that group - unemployment count-wise as they sort of fall off the grid.

It’s getting really sad. There seems to be little doubt that the Stimulus Package as it turns out is really not a jobs creating bill. So, what will turn all this around?

Also, good health is the most important thing in life – but, a job is a very close second at least for those that need a job to survive – it’s hard to even imagine the pain that millions of Americans are going through, yet the federal government is screwing around with health insurance and cap/trade when 10-12 million Americans can’t find work. Plus, Obama is leasing a $20 million farm on Martha’s Vineyard for vacation time. In addition, we now know that Obama is a racist just like all his close friends.

With that said, what’s your guess as to the exact unemployment percentage for July 2010?

The closest guess, without going over the exact number gets a virtual $100 bill.

[Dan40]

Every time the Government posts the :OFFICIAL" unemployment rate, there is a phrase I find curious.
Like this month the rate was 9.5%, "seasonally adjusted!" The MSM drops that phrase and never refers to it. Only the Gov. uses it. Wha it is?

[cobra de capell]

From Bureau of Labor Statistics

How are seasonal fluctuations taken into account?

Total employment and unemployment are higher in some parts of the year than in others. For example, unemployment is higher in January and February, when it is cold in many parts of the country and work in agriculture, construction, and other seasonal industries is curtailed. Also, both employment and unemployment rise every June, when students enter the labor force in search of summer jobs.

The seasonal fluctuations in the number of employed and unemployed persons reflect not only the normal seasonal weather patterns that tend to be repeated year after year, but also the hiring (and layoff) patterns that accompany regular events such as the winter holiday season and the summer vacation season. These variations make it difficult to tell whether month-to-month changes in employment and unemployment are due to normal seasonal patterns or to changing economic conditions. To deal with such problems, a statistical technique called seasonal adjustment is used. This technique uses the past history of the series to identify the seasonal movements and to calculate the size and direction of these movements. A seasonal adjustment factor is then developed and applied to the estimates to eliminate the effects of regular seasonal fluctuations on the data. When a statistical series has been seasonally adjusted, the normal seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out and data for any month can be more meaningfully compared with data from any other month or with an annual average. Many time series that are based on monthly data are seasonally adjusted.



Series Id: LNU04000000Not Seasonally AdjustedSeries title: (Unadj) Unemployment RateLabor force status: Unemployment rateType of data: PercentAge: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.2
2000 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0
2001 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.7
2002 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.7 5.5 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.8
2003 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.8 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 6.0
2004 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.3 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.5
2005 5.7 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.6 5.1
2006 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6
2007 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.6
2008 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.1 5.8
2009 8.5 8.9 9.0 8.6 9.1 9.7

Therefore, in June 2009, the not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.7%, versus 9.5% seasonally adjusted.

I'd say that when the rate gets to this level a lot of people just give up and are not counted. It's probably well over 10.0% - there are probably millions that have not been in the workforce for years that would like to work now due to a family situation....but there are no jobs.

[Cobrabill]

We aren't at the bottom yet.Yesterday, i saw a cut of 89 autoracks being sent to storage on an abandoned spur.No-one is buying cars.

Tucson Yard & West Colton yard are closed on weekends.Trains are being combined.Back east entire yards are being shut down.Phoenix yard is going to be run from Tucson by camera so they can furlough all the yardmasters in Phoenix.

[cobra de capell]

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.7 percent when the July figure is reported next week.

Obama promised that it would not go over 8% if the $800 BILLION Stimulus Package was passed.....Are you feeling stimulated yet?

[trularin]

In Flint, the real rate is very close to 30%.

I think it was Buffet that said this isn't going to settle down until 2011???

Whoever said that might be more right than these other people.

"But wait...theres more."

[DAVID GAGNARD]

Here in Louisiana we're supposed to have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country right now and we may have, but they are laying off folks in record numbers.....Oil field/drilling and related stuff including the refineries are laying off people in record numbers...............they can't stack the drilling rigs fast enough. My future son-in-law was laid off 2 weeks ago (oil drilling related), they told him they would call him back as soon as things picked up, they expect to call him back in 14 to 18 months!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If we have one of the lowest UE rates here, I feel for the rest of the country.... The prediction around here is at least another year of the same..........this ain't good for nobody.........

David

[Cobrabill]

[quote=trularin;"But wait...theres more."

[/QUOTE]


When i read this-Billy Mays came to mind....

Originally Posted by DAVID GAGNARD

Here in Louisiana we're supposed to have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country right now and we may have, but they are laying off folks in record numbers.....Oil field/drilling and related stuff including the refineries are laying off people in record numbers...............they can't stack the drilling rigs fast enough. My future son-in-law was laid off 2 weeks ago (oil drilling related), they told him they would call him back as soon as things picked up, they expect to call him back in 14 to 18 months!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If we have one of the lowest UE rates here, I feel for the rest of the country.... The prediction around here is at least another year of the same..........this ain't good for nobody.........

David

David-how in the hell can there be no demand for drilling?This is absurd.

[Bobcat]

I can`t speak for LA , but a friend of mine in TX said almost all land based rigs and exploration are/is being shut down . Per Jerry , the current cost of oil is too low to support any exploration etc . Believe it or not , oil needs to be up in the $70 to $80/barrel range minimum . ... boy how things have changed . When I was involved with that industry , I can remember $20/barrel oil ... and it was a disaster back then .

Bob

[DAVID GAGNARD]

Originally Posted by Cobrabill

When i read this-Billy Mays came to mind....



David-how in the hell can there be no demand for drilling?This is absurd.

Economics is my guess......people are using less gas, so they lower the price to sell more and now people are still using less gas at lower prices (paid $2.25 gal. today here)......No need to make more than you can sell, oil companies don't have the storage facilities for large volumes of gas........

My buddy who is a chemist at the EXXON refinery in Baton Rouge (for the last 22+ years) told me the other day they have shut down 90% of their "chemicals division". Chemicals other than fuel, mostly chemicals for paints and plastic manufactering, little to no sales for the stuff, no need to make something you can't sell......

Many other chemical plants closing here or cutting back drastically, ie: Dupont and a few other major players in the paint industry.

he also told me prior to all this mess, they ran the gas refining part of the plant 24/7 at 100% capacity for the prior 10 years and never had more than a 3 day supply of gas on hand, sometimes the tanker trucks were lined up waiting for the reifned gas to come down the line to haul it off......now they have most all the storage facilities full of gas, there are probably running at 75% capacity, something he has not seen in 15 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I know of at least 2 dozen guys that worked in the oil drilling/oil field industry that were laid off in the last month and I'm from small town America,pop. 5,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Like I said, it ain't good and no one expects much of a turnaround for at least another year, just hope these folks can hold out and make it another year.

I can`t speak for LA , but a friend of mine in TX said almost all land based rigs and exploration are/is being shut down . Per Jerry , the current cost of oil is too low to support any exploration etc . Believe it or not , oil needs to be up in the $70 to $80/barrel range minimum . ... boy how things have changed . When I was involved with that industry , I can remember $20/barrel oil ... and it was a disaster back then .

Zacctly, small land wells out in the boondocks are being "shut-in", price of oil is too low to make it profitable to get this oil to market and it's not the best grade crude to start with and these little wells don't produce that many barrels per day.

David

[cobra de capell]

We all know that oil will be back to $100 in 2010 or 2011, seems like the government should stock up, paying with stimulus funds versus all the other nutcase projects that are receiving funds.

[cobra bill]

So far only 10% of the stimulus has been spent, so there has not been enough spent to make a dent in the unemployment rate they are screwing up big time not getting it out faster, and if they are not going to get it out fast enough to make a difference, they should take back the rest of it. I do think spending it on infrastructure is the right thing to do, but they are not getting it done.